Zhu Xiaosha, Senior Manager of Raw Material Procurement Department, Zhejiang Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. delivers her report of MEG market outlook for 2024 under supply revolution

Ms. Zhu's report is divided into the following three parts.

Part 1: China domestic MEG Supply/Demand Outlook for 2024 

In this section, Ms. Zhu used detailed data to illustrate that over the next two years, the pace of new MEG capacity additions will slow down and production growth will simultaneously decline. However, with polyester capacity still being added, the MEG supply/demand balance will improve. It cannot be ignored, though, that existing MEG capacity remains relatively large and has significant elasticity to ramp up, so the industry is still in an overall capacity surplus cycle. 

Part 2: Shifts in MEG Import Structure

Ms. Zhu analyzed changes in the MEG import structure from 2020-2023 from multiple angles including import volumes, import dependency, and import origins. She pointed out that the contraction in MEG imports, coupled with low domestic supply levels, led to a new low in MEG availability in January-February 2023. This, coupled with polyester plants restocking ahead of the holidays, caused MEG prices and port premiums to rise continuously. 

Part 3: Is Spring Coming for MEG? 

For the coal-to-MEG sector, Ms. Zhu noted that under high oil prices, leading coal-based MEG producers still maintain competitiveness, raising their market share. For oil-based MEG, during the profit recovery process, operating rates at non-syngas-based MEG plants are increasing. On the import side, with the return of overseas plants and easing of the Panama Canal congestion, a rebound in imports is expected in April-May. Let me know if you need any clarification or have additional context to provide on this MEG market analysis.