Hou Zhenhai, Founder of Hanwuji Investment Consulting Company, former Strategy Chief of CICC and former Macro Chief of Discovering Investment delivers his report of Global economic development trend and market focus amid new pattern

Mr. Hou's report is divided into the following two parts:

First, overseas Macro. Market expectations for the extent and frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2024 have been fluctuating significantly, with the possibility of the US CPI rising to nearly 4% year-on-year in the second quarter. It is believed that the Fed will choose to stop reducing its balance sheet after ONRRP is exhausted, and there is a high probability that the halt in balance sheet reduction may occur before the start of interest rate cuts.

Second, Chinese Macro. Post-pandemic, attention should be paid to the potential further expansion of the service trade deficit and outflow of investment returns. Real estate investment in 2024 continues to decline, with government support for the new energy manufacturing industry being the main driver of domestic investment growth. Fiscal policy remains a crucial lever, and it remains to be seen whether future fiscal policy will shift towards further easing.