Li Xuegang, Vice President of CCTD delivers his report of Thermal Coal Market Analysis in 2023

Mr. Li’s report is divided into two parts.

1. Basic understanding of thermal coal supply and demand in 2023. Mr. Li pointed out that in 2023, there will be a "mismatch" in time between the increase in thermal coal supply and the increment of demand. The uncertainty of the situation in the international thermal coal market and the implementation of the supply guarantee policy will lead to a “loose first and then tightening” of the thermal coal supply in 2023, and “drop first and then rise” in the spot thermal coal price.

2. The main factors that disturb the spot thermal coal price. On the one hand, the fundamentals of the thermal coal market are the basis for the price trend of spot thermal coal, and prices that are divorced from the fundamentals will eventually return rationally. On the other hand, as the size of the thermal coal market continues to increase, its fundamentals will become more abundant and complex, including consumer demand, production and demand mismatch, transportation bottlenecks, thermal coal supply guarantees, and market sentiment. There are many price disturbance factors and frequent changes, and spot thermal coal price fluctuations will be inevitable.