Mr. Li indicated that, given the limited growth potential on the supply side-stemming from insufficient expansion in domestic raw coal output and thermal coal imports-the annual central price level for thermal coal is expected to rise in 2026.

Part 1:He explained the slowing growth momentum of thermal coal demand by analyzing: (1) the growth rate of societal electricity consumption; (2) the impact of expanding clean energy power generation; and (3) thermal coal consumption in non-power sectors, including metallurgical, building materials, and chemical industries.

Part 2:He highlighted three factors indicating that raw coal production growth will continue to decelerate: (1) signs of fatigue in output growth from national and key producing regions; (2) the lingering impact of coal production verification and inspection policies; and (3) ongoing capacity reductions and phase-outs following official capacity re-assessments.

Part 3: He pointed out that thermal coal imports are set to decline definitively, driven by: (1) increasingly challenging export conditions from major coal-supplying countries to China; and (2) the divergent price trends between domestic and international markets. He further noted related implications, such as relatively weak rigid demand for imported thermal coal among domestic end-users and a potentially extended timeframe for the noticeable decline in import volumes.

Additionally, Mr. Li addressed several other key topics: the impact of coal transportation policies, the prospect of sustained activity in the coastal thermal coal market, uncertainties facing the thermal coal market, thermal coal price trend outlooks, and relevant market risk warnings.