Crude oil: the Trump 2.0 era
——Xiao Lanlan, Deputy Director of Research Institute of Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co., Ltd.,
Her report is divided into five parts:
Part one: The impact of Trump 2.0 on the crude oil market. Ms. Xiao discussed aspects such as supply, demand and price expectations, concluding that crude oil prices are showing a downward trend.
Part two: Ms. Xiao analyzed the increase in domestic shale oil production in the Trump 2.0 era and the foreign energy tariff policies.
Part three: Ms. Xiao discussed the United States' stance on countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela.
Part four: Economic conditions and OPEC+ production increases. In this section, Ms. Xiao believed that the U.S. economy faces factors such as high interest rates and policy adjustments, potentially leading to stagflation or even recession. The increase in OPEC+ production needs to be analyzed in conjunction with the actual execution of compensation plans for overproducing countries.
Part five: Crude oil balance sheet and market performance. Finally, Ms. Xiao concludes that based on the projected balance sheet, the outlook for crude oil is relatively bearish. The supply and demand performance in the U.S. is relatively healthy, while China faces weak demand and uncertain sanctions.
