Crude oil market analysis and outlook
——Liu Jian, researcher from Shenzhen Kaifeng Investment Management Co., Ltd

There were complicated reasons for successive fall of crude oil prices in 2015. Mr. Liu firstly introduced national energy security strategy of U.S. in the circumstance of petroleum crisis. Shale gas and shale oil revolution then broke out, leading to collapse of gas prices and chain reactions in energy and chemical markets. But in long term, balance of energy products was supposed healthier than other industrial products. 

Secondly, since 2015, shale oil prices had been below compete cost for long term except the short rally in second quarter. Besides, the fall of oil price since Q4 was more reflected in the correction of re-balance as well as the feedback of unexpectedly lower demand and supply in Q4. Worries about full stock actually emerged after Jan but had been soon eased. 

At last, Mr. Liu thought crude oil demand might grow 1-1.2 million barrels per day, as related to the economy growth rate. Demand still differs for each oil product, strong gasoline and weak diesel may continue. Russia, Venezuela and other oil producing countries have released cooperative signals frequently. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar have agreed on freezing oil output at January level, and other oil producers have taken a stand. However, OPEC may not reduce production.