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Opportunities and Challenges for the Development of China's Polyester Industry Chain in the Post-epidemic Era
——Zhang Youding, Manager of business research office, Sinopec Chemical Commercial Holding Company Limited

2023-03-28 11:07:16


The report is divided into the following three parts:


Part One: Market review of the past three years. The market has changed far beyond expectations in the past 3 years due to the epidemic. The acceleration of the annual capacity growth in the past three years, the decline of the operating rate from a high level, and the acceleration of raw material exports, etc., all well reflected such changes. The market trends of major products have converged, and the profitability has been compressed to varying degrees.


Part Two: Market outlook for the next three years. After the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, people's values have undergone profound changes. Although the domestic economy is expected to improve after the epidemic, it is difficult for the deteriorating international trades to see significant improvement in the short term. From the perspective of domestic demand, the demand will see gradual recovery, yet export growth will slow down meaningfully, and import of PX and MEG is unlikely to disappear. Industry capacity expansion has not slowed down, and profit concentration has caused phased production reduction. Besides, the market will mainly be driven by the cost.  Oversupply is expected to keep suppressing product profits, and product research and development investment will continue to grow. As such, head enterprises will integrate resources in an attempt to build low-cost chemical industry competitive advantage.

Part Three: Major opportunities and challenges. At present, the main challenges include the slowdown of export growth of end products and polyester products, the lack of high value-added polyester products, intensifying competition in the industry, and that the industry is currently facing restructuring reshuffle. However, at the same time, domestic demand is gradually restored in China, the integration of the industrial chain further enhance the long-term competitiveness of China's polyester industry, and the possible adjustment of oil demand under high oil prices will bring opportunities for PX profitability. Finally, Zhang puts forward some suggestions for the industry to innovate and adapt to changes in operation, so as to build comprehensive competitive advantage in development.

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