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2019 MEG supplydemand structure and spot-futures operation strategy analysis
!!Liu Qionglin,special guest invited by DCE, PIC of MEG research and investment in Grand Energy Co., Ltd.,

2019-03-21 15:27:40
Liu Qionglin,special guest invited by DCE, PIC of MEG research and investment in Grand Energy Co., Ltd., gave her report on 2019 MEG supply/demand structure and spot-futures operation strategy analysis 

Liu's report is divided into three sections. 
First, she analyzed the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol in 2019, mainly starting from the following aspects: 
1.MEG global trade flow. The largest exporter is the Middle East and the largest importer is China (9.83 million tons, 2018); 2. MEG supply exceeds demand; 3. The growth rate of supply mainly comes from coal-based MEG, while the demand growth rate is about 7-8%, and the supply is obviously greater than demand; 4. Through the above series of data, 16% growth rate could maintain supply and demand balance. 

Second. Ms. Liu believes that the current futures market is still healthy: from the perspective of operational status, the transaction is active; from the perspective of function, it achieves more objective and efficient price discovery and more efficient and safe market channels; from the perspective of value withdrawal, it promotes the upgrading of the polyester industry and enhance customer risk prevention capabilities. 

Finally, Ms. Liu made several suggestions for the future: 1. The positive and reverse arbitrage and their solutions have positive feedback and negative feedback to the current futures and spot prices; 2. The positive arbitrage has upper limit safety margin, which can be calculated according to different costs and the lowest cost of the market; 3. When spot prices are flat with futures prices, players can consider the possibility of reverse arbitrage , especially rest eyes on stock volume and trends, and tax factors; 4. Everything starts from the core logic, and the margin of safety or statistics is only for reference. 
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