2019 MEG supplydemand structure and spot-futures operation strategy analysis
!!Liu Qionglin,special guest invited by DCE, PIC of MEG research and investment in Grand Energy Co., Ltd.,
2019-03-21 15:27:40
Liu Qionglin,special guest invited by DCE, PIC of MEG research and investment in Grand Energy Co., Ltd., gave her report on 2019 MEG supply/demand structure and spot-futures operation strategy analysis
Liu's report is divided into three sections.
First, she analyzed the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol in 2019, mainly starting from the following aspects:
1.MEG global trade flow. The largest exporter is the Middle East and the largest importer is China (9.83 million tons, 2018); 2. MEG supply exceeds demand; 3. The growth rate of supply mainly comes from coal-based MEG, while the demand growth rate is about 7-8%, and the supply is obviously greater than demand; 4. Through the above series of data, 16% growth rate could maintain supply and demand balance.
Second. Ms. Liu believes that the current futures market is still healthy: from the perspective of operational status, the transaction is active; from the perspective of function, it achieves more objective and efficient price discovery and more efficient and safe market channels; from the perspective of value withdrawal, it promotes the upgrading of the polyester industry and enhance customer risk prevention capabilities.
Finally, Ms. Liu made several suggestions for the future: 1. The positive and reverse arbitrage and their solutions have positive feedback and negative feedback to the current futures and spot prices; 2. The positive arbitrage has upper limit safety margin, which can be calculated according to different costs and the lowest cost of the market; 3. When spot prices are flat with futures prices, players can consider the possibility of reverse arbitrage , especially rest eyes on stock volume and trends, and tax factors; 4. Everything starts from the core logic, and the margin of safety or statistics is only for reference.
Liu's report is divided into three sections.
First, she analyzed the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol in 2019, mainly starting from the following aspects:
1.MEG global trade flow. The largest exporter is the Middle East and the largest importer is China (9.83 million tons, 2018); 2. MEG supply exceeds demand; 3. The growth rate of supply mainly comes from coal-based MEG, while the demand growth rate is about 7-8%, and the supply is obviously greater than demand; 4. Through the above series of data, 16% growth rate could maintain supply and demand balance.
Second. Ms. Liu believes that the current futures market is still healthy: from the perspective of operational status, the transaction is active; from the perspective of function, it achieves more objective and efficient price discovery and more efficient and safe market channels; from the perspective of value withdrawal, it promotes the upgrading of the polyester industry and enhance customer risk prevention capabilities.
Finally, Ms. Liu made several suggestions for the future: 1. The positive and reverse arbitrage and their solutions have positive feedback and negative feedback to the current futures and spot prices; 2. The positive arbitrage has upper limit safety margin, which can be calculated according to different costs and the lowest cost of the market; 3. When spot prices are flat with futures prices, players can consider the possibility of reverse arbitrage , especially rest eyes on stock volume and trends, and tax factors; 4. Everything starts from the core logic, and the margin of safety or statistics is only for reference.
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