PX-PTA market forecast
！！Xiang Bo, Chief Director of synthetic raw materials
2019-03-21 11:07:05
Xiang Bo, Chief Director of synthetic raw materials, Sinopec, delivers his report of PX-PTA market forecast
Mr. Xiang started with textile and polyester market. As to textile, domestic demand is expected to keep stable or inch down weakly in 2019. Foreign demand is anticipated to reduce slightly. Textile and apparel demand growth may decline in long cycle, but the growth rate may not lower significantly in 2019. Polyester output growth rate slows down, but it is generally in line with consumption growth and processing spread of major products will keep benign.
Global PTA will welcome periodical high in 2019. There are fewer new capacities in 2019 and more in 2020, so there will be oversupply again, but PTA supply will be tight in Q2-Q3, 2019. The current capacity utilization rate is close to the 2010-2012 level, but concentrated. Futures prices reflect the future situation.
Global PX supply increases largely, and the industry may face turning point of prosperity cycle in 2019. Scale of PX unit maintenance in H1 2019 is much larger than that of H1 2018 and new supply. Tight PX supply pattern will continue till the end of the second quarter of 2019. Domestic production and inventory will move up gradually after Jun. Crude oil price is expected to fluctuate to slightly higher.
There will be oversupply of the whole industry chain after 2020. Companies in polyester industry chain accelerate upstream and downstream integration, signaling big changes in competition structure in the future. The concentration of the market will enhance further, and the industry structure could alter significantly.
Mr. Xiang started with textile and polyester market. As to textile, domestic demand is expected to keep stable or inch down weakly in 2019. Foreign demand is anticipated to reduce slightly. Textile and apparel demand growth may decline in long cycle, but the growth rate may not lower significantly in 2019. Polyester output growth rate slows down, but it is generally in line with consumption growth and processing spread of major products will keep benign.
Global PTA will welcome periodical high in 2019. There are fewer new capacities in 2019 and more in 2020, so there will be oversupply again, but PTA supply will be tight in Q2-Q3, 2019. The current capacity utilization rate is close to the 2010-2012 level, but concentrated. Futures prices reflect the future situation.
Global PX supply increases largely, and the industry may face turning point of prosperity cycle in 2019. Scale of PX unit maintenance in H1 2019 is much larger than that of H1 2018 and new supply. Tight PX supply pattern will continue till the end of the second quarter of 2019. Domestic production and inventory will move up gradually after Jun. Crude oil price is expected to fluctuate to slightly higher.
There will be oversupply of the whole industry chain after 2020. Companies in polyester industry chain accelerate upstream and downstream integration, signaling big changes in competition structure in the future. The concentration of the market will enhance further, and the industry structure could alter significantly.
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