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Development and policy direction of high-quality economy and new opportunities to enterprise
!!Chen Dongqi, Academy of Macroeconomic Research. NDRC

2018-03-29 09:27:57
Chen Dongqi, Academy of Macroeconomic Research. NDRC presented his report of Development and policy direction of high-quality economy and new opportunities to enterprise 

The overall economy of China is still stable. For the trade wars, the two sides are still negotiating. Globalization is first and foremost, China and the United States, and the United States is inseparable from China. The U.S. are not in the demand side but in the supply side. The competitor in the market is not China. From the long-term perspective, it is unlikely that great friction will occur. 

Looking at the Chinese economy, although there is a one-way RMB appreciation pressure, in the long run, it is still relatively stable. Last year, per capita income increased by 7.3% indicating higher purchasing and spending power.  

For industries that have suffered losses for many years, they must expand their capacity and investment. Investment is still a very important part in driving the consumption, but the domestic demand is increasing. 

From a seasonal perspective, the quarter ahead should be better. In the first quarter, it may not be able to see 7% growth, but the second quarter has a high probability. 

Looking at export trade, the surplus in the first quarter is expanding. The main reasons are the value of exported products is growing, and the foreign-funded processing companies temporarily failed to keep pace with the escalation of consumption in China. 

If China's economy growth is 7%, the United States 3%, and Europe 4%, then it will be the trend of global economic recovery. From China. The 19th National Congress established Xi Jinping¨s economic thinking. China¨s economic growth rate is shifting from a fast speead to high quality. The focus of macroeconomics is not on demand, not an unrestrained expansion of demand. The second point is the main contradiction in China now is the structural contradiction of supply. 

De-capacity is not only to reduce production capacity, but also to improve production capacity. 

De-leveraging, the debt ratio is declining, and the debt ratio of industrial enterprises has dropped by 8% year-on-year, which is very alarming. 

Looking at the indicators, with the improvement of the structure, electricity consumption has increased greatly. In terms of transportation, long-distance transportation, railway transportation, and economic mobility and currency movement are all increasing. The PPI was negative before September last year and has recently begun to go higher. The crude oil price is on the rise, and the world has basically got rid of deflation. If the problem of trade friction could be solved, we can see growth that has not been seen in previous years. 

In terms of currency, after the US dollar index peaked at 103, it entered the downward cycle and may go to 70. If it continues to callback, it will trigger the herd effect. Personally, it is a signal of long-term decline.  

In conclusion, the business climate is good, at least for five quarters. Second, trade friciton will be solved in a mild way. Third, the chemical and chemical fiber industry must solve the problem of the homogenization of products and must engage in technological development. 
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