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Global paraxylene market analysis and outlook
¡ª¡ªMr. Bohan Loh from Argus Dewitt
2016-03-23 16:46:42
Mr. Bohan Loh introduces PX-PTA market from 3 major aspects. PX part:
1. Reviewing the 2015-2016 PX markets. He subdivided this part into 4 sectors: Key events that shaped the Asia markets, The cfr USA factor, Term pricing 2016 review, SEA origin PX; double whammy?
2. PX supply/demand outlook for 2016/2017. He subdivided this part into 2 sectors: PX & PTA projects, impacts on flows; Maintenances, how heavy for this year?
3. Short/medium term outlook & conclusions. He introduces a potential 2016 timeline for PX.
Conclusion: The 2015 PX market has out-performed against earlier expectations. Fundamentals for 2016 appear good too! But this is against a gloomy global economic outlook. PX margins touched 16-month high of $440/t. Peak?ãOctane value is now an increasingly important factor to ponder upon when talking about PX supply.
He also raised some questions: How much can the US pull from Asia this year? New PX trade routes? Will ME/India be ânatural supplierâ after Europe? Will we see more volumes from Korea/Japan entering the picture?
PTA part:
1. The China & Indian PTA markets. Points cover margins--still very much in the dumps; The cfr China price in relation to Indiaâs demand
2. The FOB China & FOB India markets, including 3 sections: Fob China, but where to sell? Fob India, soon to come? And the decline of Thailand/Korea.
Conclusions: Cut-throat competition will be seen in both China and global PTA markets.
PTA margin may not improve in 2016. Some months may look good but the market is fundamentally oversupplied. The gloomy global/China economic outlook.
PTA rationalisation is still ongoing: more rationalisation could be seen in Korea, Thailand? Low efficiency PTA plants in China.
