2016 global macro trading logic and strategy
¡ª¡ªWang Pei, Founder, Horizon

2016-03-25 10:33:54


Mr. Wang's speech started from the discrepancy between frequent rebound of commodity market and current fundamentals. He pointed out that the expansion of credit cycle was affected by supply and demand and positive impact on economy took on since Q2. Social financing growth rebounds is the macro-background of rebound commodity market and social funds turned from "false" to "true". He explained monetary multiplier constructed positive feedback to real economy.

Secondly, Mr. Wang commented on A shares and real estate market performance and future trend from the influence of monetary and credit policy. He said that Capital distributaries on real estate market will squeeze valuation of A shares, further making valuation strategy inversion.

Thirdly, Mr. Wang explained the relationship between US and emerging markets:
1. U.S. Treasury Securities implies economic growth outlook for emerging markets and these two capitals are hard to be separated. Risk-off status of financial market has ended since Dec, risk preference of capital is in obvious recovery.
2. Unexpected adjustment of US stock leads to price-in and outlook for unable separation between U.S. economy and emerging markets lead to the change of USD logic.
3. History doesn't repeat itself. The key factor of U.S. interest rate hike cycle depends on the resonance of global cycle.

Finally, Mr. Wang forecasted that commodity market will keep warming up in Q2-Q3 if there are no adjustments in exchange rate policy.
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