Mr. Wang's speech started from the discrepancy between frequent
rebound of commodity market and current fundamentals. He pointed out
that the expansion of credit cycle was affected by supply and demand and
positive impact on economy took on since Q2. Social financing growth
rebounds is the macro-background of rebound commodity market and social
funds turned from "false" to "true". He explained monetary multiplier
constructed positive feedback to real economy.
Secondly, Mr. Wang commented on A shares and real estate market
performance and future trend from the influence of monetary and credit
policy. He said that Capital distributaries on real estate market will
squeeze valuation of A shares, further making valuation strategy
inversion.
Thirdly, Mr. Wang explained the relationship between US and emerging markets:
1. U.S. Treasury Securities implies economic growth outlook for
emerging markets and these two capitals are hard to be separated.
Risk-off status of financial market has ended since Dec, risk preference
of capital is in obvious recovery.
2. Unexpected adjustment of US stock leads to price-in and outlook
for unable separation between U.S. economy and emerging markets lead to
the change of USD logic.
3. History doesn't repeat itself. The key factor of U.S. interest rate hike cycle depends on the resonance of global cycle.
Finally, Mr. Wang forecasted that commodity market will keep warming
up in Q2-Q3 if there are no adjustments in exchange rate policy.